Liv-ex 100指数 11月上升1.6%

11月份Liv-ex 优质葡萄酒100指数月结296.19点,比上个月上升1.6%。这已是该指数首次的连续第十二个月上升,去年至今共涨了23.8%; 目前也是它五年以来的最高水平。

上月前两名价格升幅最大的葡萄酒是来自香槟和托斯卡纳酒区,它们是泰亭哲Taittinger Comtes 2004年(WA 96)和奥纳亚Ornellaia 2009年(WA 97);其单月的价格涨幅已超过9%。

11月份的市场步伐似乎有所放缓,而五大升跌榜中的葡萄酒类型看来也没有固定的模式。之前数月曾一度显著涨价的马赛多Masseto 2010年(WA 98)和博卡斯特尔Beaucastel 2012年(WA 96),在11月份却有所回落。 总体来说,市场表现依然稳健,但这涨势能否在2017年得以持续,我们仍有待观察。

Talking Trade: Carruades and Clement on the rise

fine-wine-50

This month, the Liv-ex indices have continued to rise. The Liv-ex 100 – the industry leading benchmark – is currently at its highest level in five years and the Liv-ex 1000 – the broadest measure of the market – has reached record highs for four consecutive months. However, this week momentum slowed for the Liv-ex Fine wine 50 – tracking the daily price movement of the First Growths – which dropped 0.1% for the second week in a row.

regional-trade-by-value

After a strong week, trade for Champagne and Italy dipped this week. Bordeaux activity climbed to 76.2% and the Rhone and the ‘Others’ both saw an increase in trade.

trade-by-value

Carruades Lafite 2014 was the highest traded wine by value this week. The 2011 vintage also saw high levels of activity and earlier this month traded at an all-time high of £1,744 per 12×75.

carruades-lafite-2011

The high scoring Pape Clement 2012 (WA 97) continues to trade well by both value and volume. The wine was the most traded by volume this week and saw a flurry of activity on the Exchange towards the end of November. Robert Parker describes the wine as “a candidate for near-perfection as well as one of the wines of the vintage”.

pape-clement-2012

trade-by-volume

Looking for weekend reading? This week, we published an interview with Giovanni Geddes da Filicaja, CEO of Ornellaia and Masseto. In the interview Giovanni discusses business strategy, the fine wine market and the relationship between Ornellaia and Masseto.


 

The Liv-ex 1000 continues to reach record highs

ten-years

The Liv-ex 1000 Index – the broadest measure of the fine wine market – closed November 2016 at a new high of 296.60. This is an increase of 1.02% on October’s close of 293.60. It has now reached record highs for four consecutive months.

The index previously reached a high of 297.69 in July 2011 at the peak of the China-led bull market. It then fell 13.3% before hitting a low of 242.6 in August 2014.

The fine wine market has been rising since the end of last year. It received a marked boost after June 24 when the UK voted to leave the EU. A weaker Sterling has encouraged buying from Euro and Dollar-based merchants.

indices

Amongst the Liv-ex 1000 sub-indices, Bordeaux has been leading the charge. The Bordeaux Legends 50 (+24.5%) and the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 (+22.7%) have increased the most this year. However, the Champagne 50 (+3.9%) and Burgundy 150 (2.5%) are closing the gap after making strong gains this month. The Italy 100 (-1.0%) and Rhone 100 (-0.6%) continue to lag behind having recorded small declines this month.

index-table


 

Liv-ex 100 gains 1.6% in November

5yrs

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index closed November on 296.19, up 1.6% on the previous month. The index has now risen for an unprecedented twelve consecutive months and is up 23.8% year-to-date. It is now at its highest level in five years.

The two top movers last month were from Champagne and Tuscany, with Taittinger Comtes 2004 (WA 96) and Ornellaia 2009 (WA 97) increasing by more than 9%.

The pace of the market appears to be slowing slightly and there seems to be no set pattern in risers and fallers. In November, Masseto 2010 (WA 98) and Beaucastel 2012 (WA 96) pulled back from their significant gains of previous months. Overall the market strength appears robust, but as we head towards 2017, it remains to be seen whether the long period of sustained gains will continue.

movers


 

Liv-ex interview with Giovanni Geddes da Filicaja of Ornellaia and Masseto, part one

Giovanni Geddes da Filicaja is the CEO of Ornellaia and Masseto. Liv-ex recently caught up with him to find out more about his work and views on the world of wine. In the first part of the interview, published below, Giovanni discusses business strategy, the fine wine market, and the relationship between Ornellaia and Masseto.

 How did you get into the wine business? What brought you to Ornellaia e Masseto?

I didn’t go straight into wine. I started at an import company, then became involved in Remy Martin. So I was focused on spirits and Champagne rather than wine specifically. But I had always been interested in wine: my family had wine properties and land, though we didn’t produce commercially.

When I moved into wine – first to Antinori, then as a consultant, and then to Frescabaldi – I became more and more interested in the wine, particularly looking at where there were opportunities in Tuscany to produce some of the greatest wines in the world. I think Ornellaia and Masseto are now recognised as two of the great wines of the world, and they’ve grown a lot. Since I became CEO, the company’s revenue has increased six-fold.

Is this because of increased production?

It has been partly through increased production but mostly through adding value. Masseto’s increase is all about its value. The largest volume ever made by Masseto was in 1999 when we made 38,500 bottles. Now we produce around 30/32,000 bottles.

Ornellaia’s increase has been about both production and value.

How has the pricing of your wines evolved over time?

We don’t change our price according to the character of the vintage. Instead, we change it consistently with the market. We’ve never decreased the price, only gone up or remained stable. For example, our current release price is 3.5 times higher than of the 2001 vintage.

What if the market went down?

We have to be very careful with the volume that we want to put on the market. For all our Ornellaia wines. This means maintaining and building demand which is bigger than what we ship.

So take 2001 for instance. The economy wasn’t strong at all. The wines did not have the image they have today, and so I decided to hold back Ornellaia – about 30% – and sell it over the years, but not reduce the price.

In 2002 I reduced the quantity of Ornellaia. We produced a lot more of Le Serre Nuove, the second wine, but never reduced the price. We remained stable with the price until 2005, and then we moved on.

Is there a ceiling?

Masseto is a real collectable. With the current volumes – and it will stay at that volume – it will remain collectable.

Still, there is a lot more consumption than one might think because a lot of very wealthy people are drinking it. For them the prices aren’t too high, so we still find a lot of Masseto being sold in top restaurants.

If we look at price increases Masseto is up by about 50% in the USA over the past three years. Petrus has increased by about 10%. But Petrus is two thousand dollars; we are seven or eight hundred dollars – so there’s still a gap.

Ornellaia is produced in higher volumes. It keeps growing: the standard price now varies from $200-220. In restaurants it is very high – beyond $500 in top New York restaurants.

What happens to the Masseto grapes that don’t make it into Masseto?

The Masseto vineyard has an excellent capacity to produce perfect grapes, so we are talking about a very, very small portion of the grapes that don’t go in Masseto.

masseto-emotional-3-media

How did you go about defining the relationship between the two wines?

Strategically, my point was that Masseto would be a very different wine from Ornellaia, with a completely different label. It would be more expensive, with the opportunity to be the very top wine of Italy – and very international in terms of taste and positioning.

I didn’t want Masseto to compete with Ornellaia. I wanted Ornellaia to be the flagship of the estate, and Masseto to become an estate on its own. And in order to achieve that, I started by separating any activities like tastings and so on.

I changed the name of the company from Tenuta dell’Ornellaia to Ornellaia and Masseto. So when we bottle Ornellaia we use ‘bottled by Ornellaia’ and when bottling Masseto we use ‘bottled by Masseto’.

And how about distribution?

The next step was to separate distribution. From the 2006 vintage we started using La Place de Bordeaux, though we also have direct distribution in Italy, the United States and Canada.

Distribution to the rest of the world, with the exception of a very small allocation to Germany and Austria, goes through La Place, which has about 50% of the allocation.

The growth has been fantastic. I had followed Opus One – David Pearson [CEO of Opus One] is a very good friend. We discussed distribution on a number of occasions. La Place has done a fantastic job for Opus One’s wine, and it’s doing a fantastic job for us as well with Masseto.

What makes La Place so successful?

They have a lot of history, and this has given La Place knowledge of really good buyers – the top buyers of the world.

We have a different history in Italy – there is no comparable system, so we have had to market the brands on our own.

I don’t think that La Place could work as well with a wine that is not established already – they don’t have the means to promote it. However once the wine is established, they can do a fantastic job. Now, within say the first two to four days, they will sell something like 70% of the Masseto allocation.

By the end of November last year, 88% was sold. This was due to repeat demand from several customers – we have over four hundred customers buying from La Place nowadays.

Does it matter where – which countries – your wine is sold?

It does and it doesn’t. We try to spread out our distribution, but ultimately it ends up where the market demands, and that is fine.

La Place give us all the data – they tell us which countries they have sold the wine to, by country.

Has this changed in the past decade?

Yes it has, very much so. Asia is much more important than it used to be.

Bordeaux experienced problems from mid-2011. Demand from Asia had priced European buyers out of the market. When this demand died down, it was not possible to sustain prices…

About 15% of our sales are accounted for by Asia and this is very much concentrated in Hong Kong and China. This is a much smaller percentage than is sold in Italy. Europe as a whole is huge for us Germany, Switzerland and the UK in particular. We could sell more to the UK, but we limit it – otherwise half would go to the UK and then spread out around the world again. So it is quite balanced.

Do you ever offer older vintages direct from the estate?

This year we auctioned wines from the cellars of Ornellaia. These were wines that had never left the winery before, so we put them in slightly different packaging to indicate this – something that was particularly attractive to collectors. We sold them at three different auctions in New York, London and Hong Kong. The greatest success was in Hong Kong, then New York and then London.

Masseto and Ornellaia regularly trade on Liv-ex. What is your view on this?

I think it’s a good thing. It shows that there is demand.


 

Super seconds and their seconds

second-wines-price

In October Liv-ex looked at the relationship between the prices of First Growths and their second wines, noting that it is currently possible to buy 3.3 bottles of second wines for every first (on average). This number has decreased in the last decade as brand buying has pushed the prices for second wines higher.

Beyond the Premier Crus, the price ratio between first and second wines of estates is slightly higher. It is possible to buy 4.3 bottles of the Echo de Lynch Bages and Le Petit Lion (Leoville Las Cases) for each bottle of their respective first wine, as the chart above shows.

The second wines of Cos d’Estournel and Pichon Lalande are more expensive relative to their firsts with ratios of 3.4 and 3.3 respectively. Of the second wines shown, Padogas Cos has the highest average Market Price of £350 per 12×75.

second-wines-price-2


Talking Trade 25/11: Bordeaux slows; Sassicaia moves

lx50

So far, 2016 has been a year of ‘ups’ for the fine wine market – when measured in Sterling, at least. This was the subject of a post (“One Direction…”) at the beginning of the week, and was also the subject of discussion when Liv-ex MD James Miles appeared on Bloomberg this Tuesday evening. However, this week momentum slowed and the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 – tracking the performance of the First Growths – drifted 0.1%. Bordeaux’s trade share also slipped to 64.3%.

regional

topval

Elsewhere the picture was a little brighter. Italy continued to see high levels of activity on the market at just under 10% by value. Sassicaia in particular had a busy week. 2013 was its star performer in terms of trading activity by value, coming in third overall. Meanwhile, three of its vintages – 2003, 2008 and 2009 – traded at record highs. Those interested in finding out more about Sassicaia can read Jane Anson’s article for Decanter, published on Thursday.

sass03

It wasn’t slow across all of Bordeaux this week, however. Today, Pavie 2000 traded at a record high of £5,000 per 12×75. The wine was first awarded 100 points from Robert Parker back in 2003 and has seen steady upward movement since. In Parker’s latest review of the wine, he noted that it is “just beginning to come around and strut its enormous potential”. Buyers seem to be taking note.

pavie2000

Looking for weekend reading? This week, we published the second part of our interview with Bordeaux winemaker and consultant Michel Rolland. In it, we discuss the Bordeaux market and wine criticism. You can find it here. In the first part – here – Rolland discusses his career and winemaking philosophy.


Liv-ex interview with Michel Rolland, part two

michel-rolland-juillet2013-4o

Last week, Liv-ex published the first part of an interview with Bordeaux winemaker and consultant Michel Rolland. In it, he discusses his career and winemaking philosophy. In the second part,  below, Rolland shares his views on Bordeaux and wine criticism. To view the interview in French, please click here.

There was lack of consensus on the quality of Bordeaux 2015, as shown by the Liv-ex En Primeur survey results. Do the tasters know what they are talking about?

You know, for the past 40 years I have enjoyed around 3000 new wines each year and I’m still not sure.

However I find that your non-consensus is good on two levels. First, it shows that a broad range of wines may appeal to a broad panel of tasters. This is rather positive. A consensus would mean that there is an objective ‘good’ and everything else is bad.

How about the critics, specifically?

We all know that there is one person that determines the market, even though he only reviews California now: Robert Parker. He’s the only one who has managed to build a commercial consensus behind him. He had followers and created social networks before anyone else in wine.

Today, there are people that I like such as Robert Joseph, Michel Bettane in France, Antonio Galloni in the US and Neal Martin in the UK. These people taste with professionalism and honesty that I do not doubt, but they are struggling to have as many followers as Parker did at the time.

Why do you think they don’t have Parker’s influence?

First, the market is much more complicated than it was in the days of Bob Parker. 30 years ago, when he came to a tasting that I organised, we tasted 220-230 samples in total, and then it was over. Today, I think it would have been incomplete if he tasted 800. This complicates things.

The opportunity Parker had was to taste significantly less wine. At the time he enjoyed France, Italy, Spain, the US, South America and Australia. Today, nobody can do that: just for France, there is a specialist in Bordeaux, a specialist in Burgundy and a specialist in the Languedoc.

Does this make them more expert?

No, because the best way to be an expert is to be broad – to taste everything. The more you reduce your field of view, the less expert you are.

So to become an expert critic, we must enjoy everything – a lot and often?

Exactly. It takes time to become a good taster. However, you also need talent. I always compare it to sport: everyone can run, but some run faster than others.

Do you think there will be a new Parker?

No, for the reasons I mentioned before. Nobody will have same opportunity now. No-one can have the same influence.

Do you think the influence he had was a good thing?

That’s a good question! No. Intellectual hegemony is a form of dictatorship. However, unlike other dictatorships where one can force people, nobody had to listen to Parker… but everyone did!

How do you see the role of social media currently and in the future?

I have had two thoughts. First, I was absolutely convinced that social networks were an opportunity to spread knowledge about wine. The problem that we have now is that they are not used for tasting notes but for fighting. I find them too aggressive.

Aggressive to whom?

Ultimately, to everyone. At times, about wines or to winemakers, journalists – or amongst themselves. If a person claims to have tasted an extraordinary bottle of white Lagravière Malartic 2005, a wave of people will go against him. There is a kind of aggressiveness in the words; there is no consensual exchange that could move the debate forward.

I thought – and still think – that the situation can improve and be positive. Today it offers the only opportunity to cover the entire wine production globally. If you were tasting 2,000 wines 30 years ago, you’d need to be tasting 20,000-25,000 today. Who can do that? No one. If people enjoyed a bottle of Pontet Canet in Tokyo, New York, San Francisco, London or Paris and shared their experience online, it could become helpful for the consumer.

And maybe bring some consensus among a group of people?

I think so. This could be positive, even if it is complicated today when everyone wants to strengthen their reputation. People are more concerned about their egos than the intrinsic quality of the wines.

Do you think that tasting from barrel at En Primeur is a system that works well?

No, because as we said, it is very complicated. Tasting young wines is extremely technical.

So when should the wines be tasted?

When they are bottled.

Immediately, or a little later?

Perhaps 15 months later.

There would be no En Primeur system…

Not necessarily.

You want a system without En Primeur tasting?

If you look at scores for all wines from the past 20 years, you’ll see that some received poor marks but went on to become very good. Take Larcis Ducasse for example you’ll see monumental differences between scores. When you compare the assessments with sales prices and volumes – information that the properties can give ten years later – you’ll find that that the initial score has little impact on En Primeur sales. Instead, the wine falls into its usual price range and will sell as usual if the vintage is good, but will not sell if the vintage is bad – even if it received positive reviews.

So the individual score of a wine does not change the release price, even if the wine received 98 or 100 from Parker?

No, but this can offer a small boost.

What do you think of blind tastings?

I’m not a supporter of blind tastings. I do it a lot because it’s fun, but as an approach to tasting professionally I don’t like it much. You lose the spirit of tasting a little – and it is already necessary to be focused enough while tasting, even without needing to identify the wine.

Do you think the critics have sometimes under-scored your wines?

I don’t think about this too much, or judge them. Parker never really rated my own wines highly.

I assume you are aware of “Bordeaux bashing”?

Yes, there has been Bordeaux bashing and there still is.

Why?

I don’t know. In Bordeaux, we must have a sort of arrogance that does not please everyone.

But five years ago, everyone loved Bordeaux…

That’s true. I believe the arrogance of Bordeaux is shown in the prices of 2009 and 2010. Interestingly, however, it was only the prices of the very top wines that increased significantly – the others rose less.

The world of commerce and consumption poorly digested this price increase on 2009 and 2010. Then we came across more complicated vintages in 2011, 2012 and 2013.

So this is mostly due to release prices in 2009 and 2010?

Effectively. On top of that, Bordeaux fell in love with the Chinese market and became distracted from its traditional markets. Again, wine is not poetry! You have to make sales.

Are those who are “Bordeaux bashing” wrong?

I don’t think there is a reason for Bordeaux bashing specifically, but there is some truth in it. Bordeaux had a moment of madness on pricing in 2009 and 2010 and with its market orientation: China, rather than the traditional markets like the UK or USA. Some prices soared as China started to buy. It is true that this isn’t the best way towards a balanced market; it’s the best way to be criticised – and that is what happened.

What do you think of buying wines – especially the great wines of Bordeaux – for speculative purposes?

I think as long as wine is a speculative product, it is reassuring for the sector. Some point out that we can’t drink the firsts, seconds or other famous wines. I always say to people that there are a lot of good wines from the lower crus. We don’t need to drink Margaux, Latour or Mouton Rothschild every time that we drink wine. There are other very good wines – some that are much cheaper can be very pleasant.

The speculative side pleases me. As long as there are auctions that will make everyone dream, fine wine will remain a luxury item. If Louis Vuitton and Cartier are successful it is because they offer things you cannot buy every day and not everybody can afford, but can dream about.

Do you think fine wine is good investment?

I think that buying fine wines is a very good investment, even today.

Which?

Bordeaux or Burgundy – French. The United States has a good reputation, but specifically within the United States. They are beginning to find success in Hong Kong but less so in England. Old bottles of fine French vintages remain a sure bet.

If you could, what would you change in Bordeaux?

Nothing really! You know, it’s like all great systems. It can be criticised, but is there anything better than the selling power of Bordeaux? No – even if the market in London partly grew thanks to the merchants. Bordeaux has an international network of distributors with a lot of power – and this is great. Of course, you could blame Bordeaux for the margins or distribution, but on the other hand it is the only market in the world that can do everything. Personally, I would not change anything.

Which region or country do you think the greatest potential for the future?

I have high expectations for countries such as Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine or Georgia because of the climate and soil in the area surrounding the Black Sea. I think this region has a great potential.

How would your family describe you?

According to my wife: high standards for myself and others; a perfectionist – obsessive. I do not support mediocrity: we must always be more ambitious.

In the wine world, who do you admire most?

A lot of people! In Bordeaux, I had a great teacher, Émile Peynaud – he is hard to beat. I admired Pascal Ribéreau-Gayon very much. In trading, John Paul Jauffret was one of my mentors. I have also liked many great winemakers at various points in my life.

And today?

When you are 70, it is others who are watching you. So it’s a little different, but there are many wine producers that I admire such as my colleague Stéphane Derenoncourt who has had an absolutely remarkable journey, and even families like the Perses, and Alain Vauthier. In the Médoc, I would name people like Alfred Tesseron or the Cuveliers of Poyferré. In the US, there is Bill Harlan: someone who saw the big picture before anyone else in wine. He is a marketing genius. I have liked many people in my life. There are unusual characters like Marcel Guigal. It’s hard to make a list! Many people have experienced successes and shown intelligence.

What is your greatest professional achievement?

To experience my 44th harvest – I think few people have made more than 40 harvests. In fact, this must be my 75th harvest if we take into account the northern and southern hemispheres. I am sure that few people have had this opportunity and this chance, and it’s a very satisfying thing on a personal level. When I was young, I wanted to travel. I think I have been quite successful!


1996 First Growths: price movements from peak

1996-graph

Following Neal Martin’s re-appraisal of Bordeaux 1996 in The Wine Advocate last month the market has seen a boost in activity for the vintage. It stands alongside 1982 and 1990 in terms of quality and is the most active pre-2000 Bordeaux vintage traded this year.

The 1996 First Growths are mostly high-scoring and were some of the early wines purchased in volume by fine wine investment funds that emerged in the early 2000s. All fell hard from the peak of the Bordeaux market in June 2011. Lafite Rothschild 1996 fell the most, sliding 53% from its peak of £14,800 per 12×75 in February 2011 to a low of £6,950 in November 2014.

Since the Bordeaux market’s recovery at the end of 2015, First Growth price performance of the 1996s has varied. Haut Brion has risen the most year-to-date, followed closely by Margaux. Haut Brion is now 7.4% from its peak of £4,300 in April 2011.

In his re-appraisal, Martin upgraded Margaux from his previous score of 98 to a perfect 100. He said the wine “may well turn out to be the Left Bank pinnacle of the 1990s.”

graph-1996